Deflation: Speech by Bernanke

By Investing Contrarian

Published: March 7, 2010

Interesting speech by Ben Bernanke in 2002 on Deflation and US
Central banker fear deflation like a plague and rightfully so. There is no way that one can climb out of quagmire of deflation once it sets in all its murkiness. Japan is the live example while US saw it in 1930s. Bernanke is petrified of [...]

Japan GDP: Too early to celebrate?

By Investing Contrarian

Published: February 17, 2010

High growth at 1.1% QoQ (4.6% saar) in 4Q 2009 The Japanese economy grew 1.1% QoQ after seasonal adjustment (or 4.6% saar) in 4Q (Oct-Dec) 2009, higher than DB forecast (0.7%; 2.8%). The noteworthy
development is that private consumption registered the third consecutive quarterly increase (0.7% QoQ) thanks to fiscal stimulus on the purchase of consumer [...]

The Tepee Shaped Recovery

By oilguy

Published: January 16, 2010

The shape of this economic recovery will not be in a “V”, as many pundits have promulgated, but instead may be the inversion of that letter…which will unfortunately look much more like a tepee. The upcoming downfall will surprise most investors who have been tricked into believing that a government can print and spend their way into prosperity.

Japan in a permanent Deflation trap: A myth!

By Investing Contrarian

Published: January 16, 2010

Japan is a perfect case study of how monetary policy can go awfully wrong and how the damage can be permanent. Japan, claims PIMCO’s Paul Mcculley, has entered into a disastrous self feeding deflationary spiral which is impossible to exit.
An economy enters a liquidity trap when the monetary policy rate is pinned against zero, yet [...]

Japan: Hedge funds bet on my $76,000 with greed

By Investing Contrarian

Published: November 24, 2009

I have been thinking about Japan and YEN. And yet everytime I try to make a trade on YEN, I always end up asking the question whether the trade thesis is on YEN or on the dollar. And most of the time I end up nulling the trade as the new world shaping is not [...]

Japan Miracle continues

By tedtyler

Published: November 16, 2009

Japan reported a stupendous GDP fugure of 1.2% for the quarter while economists had expected 0.7%.
What I am still trying to understand, is where are the exports going ? US,EU and China have all reported spectacular GDP growths propelled by reviving exports. What is rather intrguing that all major eeconomies are growing by exporting rather [...]

Banking Reserves 10x pre lehman days

By Investing Contrarian

Published: October 5, 2009

The graph is another testimony to the fact that FED is hell bent on ensuring enough supply of money in the system. Never again do they want to see capitalism at the risk of systemic failure for want of cash.
And yet there are many who continue to brood over deflation. Looks a real impossibility [...]